Here's a little light reading for ya. I'll probably get to the outfielders on Monday along with a wrap up of the Cards opener. I'll be out of town all weekend and I don't think I'll get to watch opening day (SHIT) By the way, if there are things wrong in this post, my bad.

The Aftermath

The St. Louis Cardinals lace it up for another season after one of enduring one of the toughest seasons imaginable.

As I set down to write this, one fan’s (and pretend sportswriter’s) chronicle of the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals season, I have just looked at the predictions of the Baseball Prospectus staff, a group I regard as maybe the best baseball minds in the entire world, for the upcoming season, and see the Cards picked a cumulative THIRD. Ouch. Okay, maybe these guys are great baseball stat minds, but the Cards, third? Can it be? Will Carroll, Mr. Health, picked them fourth, behind the PIRATES! Yo Will, I want some of what your smokin’. Seriously though, I know where he is coming from. There are a lot of questions about this team this year, coming off another playoff disappointment and getting a year older. Add that to the fact that they made no significant offseason additions other than Brett Tomko, and you have a trendy pick to fall back in the pack in the NL Central. And though I feel Mr. Carroll feels there are some injury risks on the Cards, and sometimes he overestimates his own importance as the injury man (Sheldon Ocker can attest) who knows what to expect from the Birdos this year.

My biased opinion is that the Cards can still finish first, despite an offseason where they lost a bunch of the pitching arms that got them to where they were in 2002. Hamstrung by huge contracts given to Tino Martinez, Woody Williams, and Scott Rolen, the Cardianls cut loose Dave Veres, Rick White, and Chuck Finley, and saw Andy Benes retire. Walt Jocketty elected to rebuild the bullpen with older, more surgically experienced arms. Joey Hamilton, Al Levine, Lance Painter, Cal Eldred, and Dustin Hermanson were all signed to cheap deals after recent arm troubles and are fighting it out for bullpen spots as we speak. Another signee, Chris Carpenter will miss at least the first half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but will join the rotation at some point this year or next. The results have been mixed, but we’ll get to that. All in all, St. Louis has a fragile pitching staff with the potential to either crumble or have incredible depth, to support what has been repeatedly referred to as the “best everyday lineup in the NL.” There are lots of good bats, and a great defense, with four 2002 Gold Glove winners. The bench is still a question mark, and surely Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan will have some tricks up their sleeve. The question going into next week’s opener is, can LaRussa and Duncan hold this team together through another year and withstand the charge of an improving division to win the NL Central a fourth straight time? And can Walt Jocketty make the necessary moves in July to put the Cardinals over the top as he has done the past three summers, or has the front office’s (overspending) quest for a winner finally put the organization at a “financial wall”?

What follows is a position by position look, including the manager, at the state of the St. Louis baseball club from top-to-bottom. There will be some comments on the farm system, which will continue as the year goes on, right along with the talking about the big club. But the focus will be on the Cards as Matt Morris and Ben Sheets get ready to duel at 3:10 on Monday afternoon.

THE MANAGER

I’ll say one thing for Tony LaRussa. He’s been through a lot lately. The man has seen his father, his good friend and St. Louis icon Jack Buck, and one of his best pitchers and clubhouse warriors Darryl Kile all die within the past year. He’s had to deal with a team full of emotions in the heat of a pennant race, all the while dealing with the loss of his own father, and to top that off, the trial of a man who assaulted his daughter. Yet he remains strong and in charge through it all, despite being disliked by many of his team’s fans, the supposed “best baseball fans in the world.” But the 2002 season was his masterpiece as a manager in St. Louis. He took a team stricken with personal tragedy off the field and devastating injuries on it and won 97 games before the Cards wore down in the NLCS. LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan squeezed so much out of veterans like Andy Benes and Chuck Finley and Rick White and Jeff Fassero, as well as getting significant contributions from journeymen and youngsters like Jason Simontacchi, Travis Smith, Mike Crudale, and Luther Hackman. LaRussa cruised to Manager of the Year honors. But will he ever win the hearts of the majority in St. Louis? His supporters say you can’t argue with three straight trips to the postseason, his detractors talk about the results in the postseason.

I sit on the fence when it comes to LaRussa. Some of his pitching decisions in games seem like micro-managing, as if he just has to make an impact on the game somehow. And his love for “veteran, clubhouse presences” makes me ill. We’ll talk about Joe Girardi and Tino Martinez later. Yes, Tony has guys that he latches on to as players and can’t let go, even when it is clear that they stink. But he also is right on with some of his strategic moves, especially in the running game, and even though it is often characterized as overrated, I think he is very accomplished as a leader of men, and at squeezing every available ounce of talent out of certain players, particularly pitchers with the aid of Duncan. Certainly these so-called “overrated” qualities were on display in 2002, as the team could have easily fallen apart.

The playoff record is a little shoddy, and LaRussa has been blamed by a majority of the fans for the Cardinals bowing out the last three years.

In 2000, there was the decision to start Rick Ankiel in Game 1 of the NLDS, a decision which many feel has sent Ankiel’s career spiraling to the limbo that it is in now. Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t there going to be pressure on Ankiel no matter what game he starts? I thought that throwing him in Game 2 of the NLCS was a mistake though. The Cardinals had Benes, Kile, and Pat Hentgen. If they were planning to start Benes in game 3 and Kile in game 4 anyway (another mistake), why not give Hentgen a shot in game 2? After Ankiel had another wild outing and lost Game 2, Hentgen got his hot in Game 5 and lost. The pitching fell apart and Tony took heat.

He took heat in 2001 too, when in game 3, the only game that strategy really came into play, he left Mike Matthews in to serve up a three-run homer to Craig Counsell. Counsell and Matthews are both lefties. Counsell had hit like one career home run against lefty pitching and lefties were batting about .100 against Matthews. My problem with the move was that Matthews had already clearly demonstrated that he didn’t have it that night. That said, after throwing stuff at the TV for awhile, I calmed down and realized that while it was maybe a mistake to leave Matthews in, it was playing the percentages.

In 2002, it was another left-in pitcher, two of them actually. Rick White in Game 4 and Matt Morris in Game 5. Both were games where the Cardinals led late and if they had been able to win just one of them, they would have gotten to play Game 6 and maybe Game 7 in St. Louis. White gave up the game tying double on his 48th pitch in game 4. Though he has demonstrated the ability to throw 50-pitch outings in the past, fans were outraged. Equally so in Game 5, when Morris pitched a gem, but was left in for the ninth inning, where he promptly got in trouble and gave way to Steve Kline, who gave up the season-ending hit to a lefty slap hitter for the second year in a row. I’m not sure I felt great about all those pitching moves, but I felt a lot worse about the Cards going 3-for-37 with runners in scoring position, and never getting a hit in the series when they really needed one.

The overall theory is that LaRussa’s managing style gets him in trouble in the playoffs, that his risky moves backfire on him. Again, I am on the fence about this. Should be another interesting year, and I’m sure I will be alternately praising and cursing TLR throughout the season.

I can’t finish this section without praising Dave Duncan. Though he is goofy and his poker-faced responses to the media drive me wild, he may be the single-most important reason for the Cards recent string of success. This year could be his biggest triumph yet, as there are a lot of intriguing arms in the mix still. He and Tony will always be joined at the hip. I’ll talk more about Dave later in the pitcher comments and throughout the season.

NOTE: If I spend much time talking about minor league players now, I will not get the player comments done until after the season starts. I probably still won’t, but I’m going to save the minor league reporting for later. Soon, but later.

Okay let’s talk about position players, starting with the CATCHER.

Oh, for the days of Ted Simmons. The Cardinals haven’t had much in the catching department since then. Darrell Porter had a few good years, and it was thought that Todd Zeile would be the answer (he wasn’t). In between there has been a lot of Tom Pagnozzi, Tom Nieto, Steve Lake, the painful list goes on and on. LaRussa loves catchers who can play defense, to the point that their offensive stats mean basically nothing. This should be obvious, why else would Mike Matheny have over 1100 AB’s in three seasons in St. Louis? Matheny is a great defensive catcher. His success at throwing out base stealers declined last year, but he is the best in the business at blocking balls in the dirt. He is alo an out-making machine at the plate. He can’t hit for average or power and he doesn’t take many walks. He is a pretty good bunter, but he even struggled with that in 2002. But TLR loves his defense and his “handling of the pitching staff (code for not being able to hit). Matheny’s OBP has been right about .300 since he became a Cardinal, and though fans love him for his attitude and hustle, he should be a backup. His AB’s have declined over the last three seasons and that’s a trend I hope continues, although the Cards signed Joe Girardi to be the backup.

Uhhh!!! Why? Yes, it’s probably better than Mike Difelice, who can’t hit or field, but Girardi is so overrated as a catcher due to playing for the Yankees during their streak. The sad part is that his overratedness makes him seem like a decent catcher, which he is not at this point in his career, nor has he been for several years. The Cards elected to give Girardi $720,000 instead of pulling an immeasurable list of candidates from the scrap heap for the major league minimum that would have been better alternatives. I would have settled for Steve Torrealba, who is now hurt and will be the Triple-A catcher once he recovers.

Girardi is now hurt himself and may be put on the DL (please,God). But the Cards system is so thin in position talent in the higher levels of the minors that Yadier Molina, the younger brother of Jose and Bengie Molina of the Angels, could be the backup catcher on opening day. Yadi played at low-A last year and is regarded as being the best of the Molina brothers, and the Cardinals catcher of the future. He already defends like a major leaguer and has shown marked improvement with the bat over the last year. That, said, I don’t want him to start accruing major-league service time and don’t want us to waste an option on him. Hey, here’s a novel idea Tony, how about putting Eli Marrero back there at catcher, where he’d be perhaps the fifth or sixth best hitting catcher in the league? This is something that smart Cardinal fans debate all the time. Why not let Eli catch? Well, it’s because Tony doesn’t like his defense and wants to take advantage of his ability to play all three outfield positions. In other words, Eli hit too well last year, and now no longer qualifies to play catcher for the Cards. We’ll talk more about Eli when we talk about the outfielders, because Eli will probably play almost no catcher this year, although he might if Girardi does go on the DL (still praying).

Along these same lines of paying guys way too much money just because they once played for the Yankees, let’s talk about the starting 1st BASEMAN Tino Martinez. Yes, his stats were hurt by a terrible first month and the fact that he rebounded with a much better second half gives some hope for a better season. He endured a lot of criticism last year, but when you’re making 21 mil over three years, that kind of stuff is going to happen. I’m concerned about his struggles against lefties, and he’s at an age where bat speed starts to slide. He had a much better spring than last year and if he can improve at all from 2002, it’ll be a benefit to the Cards. He’s a good fielder, and in his defense, he did hit into some bad luck a lot last year. I remember several games where he sent ropes right at people three straight at-bats. The key for him is to not try and pull everything.

Eduardo Perez will be the primary backup at first, and he may get more AB’s this year if Tino continues to struggle against lefties. Perez is a righty bat with serious pop off the bench. He’s not much for peripherals, but he had several big dingers for the Cards last year, and he should be better with a full year wearing contacts. He’s hit 29 homers in 520 career AB’s as a Cardinal. This could end up being Albert Pujols position some day and he will likely see some time here this year. Neither Perez nor Albert can field like Tino.

2nd BASEMAN Fernando Vina endured his worst year at the plate as a Cardinal last year. Probably the worst thing that happened to Vina is that he hit nine home runs in 2001. He tries to lift the ball too much considering he doesn’t really have much power. He’s great at making contact and regularly leads the majors in HBP, but he swings at everything, which greatly diminishes his value as a leadoff hitter. His OBP was a yucky .318 last year, and his name was mentioned in trade rumors, which made him mad. I don’t really know why, I mean baseball is a business, it happens. As it turns out, he is still in St. Louis, and the Cards hold a $4.5 million option for him next season. He has come into the spring trying to take a more patient approach at the plate. If he gets on base at a .360 or .370 clip, like in 1999, he’ll score 125 runs.

Fernando’s glove is rock solid and he was awarded with a Gold Glove that he probably didn’t deserve, after not getting one in 2001 when he should have got one. He turns the double play better than any keystoner in baseball and he makes dazzling plays, but I think his range is overrated. He’ll be an important piece of the puzzle this year. He was on fire in the NLDS against the D-Backs.

Miguel Cairo is the kind of bench player that TLR loves because he can play so many positions decently. He played third base after Scott Rolen was injured in the playoffs and was the Cards best hitter in the NLCS, leading me to think for awhile that Vina might get traded and Cairo handed the starting job. That didn’t happen and I’m glad. Miguel is an okay guy to have on the bench. He doesn’t have much patience or power, but he’s done well pinch-hitting since the Cards claimed him off waivers from the Cubs, and he’s very cheap and versatile, so he fits. He’ll be the primary (only?) middle infield backup this season. Wilson Delgado hasn’t gotten cut yet but probably will. He’s a less versatile, worse-hitting version of Cairo.

Another awesome day for the pitching staff today. Not. We’ll talk about that soon. Right now were Rolen on to THIRD BASE. Yes, it is nice to have the best 3rd Baseman in the National League, perhaps in baseball, on your team. Rolen is a god defensively and he hit the hell out of the ball with the Cards last year after a slow start. Walt decided after a year of wondering to go ahead and get him. The price really wasn’t too steep. The Cards gave up an old overpriced reliever in Mike Timlin and Placido Polanco, not destined for the Hall of Fame even if he was a fan favorite in St. Louis. The only part that could come back to bite the Cards would be trading Bud Smith, but he looks like no better than a back of the rotation starter in the future and he really fell out of favor with LaRussa and Duncan last year (On a side note, has any team traded away two pitchers under 25 that have thrown no-hitters two years apart? Actually I think Jimenez was 25, almost 26 when he threw his no-no Still pretty weird huh?). Besides, the Cardinals are getting a guy that is on track to be one of the top 5 or 10 third sackers in baseball history, and maybe the best defender ever at the position. And he’s only 28 years old! He seems older because he’s been around for so long.

Well, the Cards got him now, but at what a price! 8 years and $90 million. That is a huge contract in today’s new economic landscape, and it’s one that wasted little time in making it hard to do other stuff on the roster. I’ll let it go on this one because Rolen is a special player, but the Tino contract and Woody Williams contract can’t happen if you’re going to do this. That’s why the team is in a financial quandary and they’ve got Tino and Woody locked up for this season and next. After 2004 we may have some relief, which we’ll need because then it will be Pujols contract time. I wonder what’s going to happen. There’s no way we’re going to be able to sign Drew, Matt Morris is making the best money he’s ever going to make and Renteria is another one I’m worried about. (I forgot to mention, Jason Isringhausen makes 6 million a year, the Cards have WAY too much money tied up in a few players.)

Any way, I digress, Rolen is a special player and it will be nice to have him around for the next eight seasons. On one of his rare days off, you could see Cairo or Pujols or even Perez at this position, but Albert’s days of being a regular third baseman are over. Scottie should thrive in the middle of such a stacked lineup, as he did last year, posting a .930 OPS as a Cardinal. Yes jealous Philly fans, this is baseball heaven.

Edgar Renteria bounced back in a major way at SHORTSTOP in 2002. He hit well all year, including his famous hits in the clutch (paging Antonio Alfonseca) and won a gold glove for his smoothness in the field. He also posted his first OPS over .800 thanks to hitting over .300 for the first time since his rookie season, what is hopefully the first of several more years Edgar hits .300. His walk rate was also better than the previous year. The Cardinals have a left side of the infield situation that makes everyone drool. Two stars at their respective positions, both offensively and defensively, and both well under 30. It’s a very nice thing to have.

The trade rumor talk in 2001 must have woken Edgar up. He played great in the second half of 2001 and had a dynamite year last year, one of the better all-around seasons ever by a Cardinal shortstop. He rarely misses a start and could steal 20 or 25 bases (22 of 29 in 2002). It’s very important that Edgar continue to show more and more plate patience. It’ll make his run-creating value go way up and he won’t have to hit .305 to be effective. He walked 49 times in 2002, let’s go for 70 in 2003 Edgar.

Now the rumor is that Delgado might stay on the roster due to Girardi’s injury. If so, he’d be the primary back up at short, but would mostly be responsible for sitting in the dugout watching everyone else play. This would also mean that Eli would be the backup catcher/whatever else. It will be interesting to see how that situation plays out.

Greetings Baseball Fans!!

Welcome to my new baseball blog, The Daily Redbird. No it probably won't be updated daily, but I've decided it's time to let my love of the Cardinals and my passion for writing come out. I have a journalism degree and wanted to go into sportswriting for most of my life, but spurned it in favor of a graduate education and more money. I've been an obsessive Cardinals fan for all of my 23 years, but I have just in the past couple years or so become very interested in sabermetrics, Baseball Stathead-dom if you will, the kind of statisitcal analysis and philosophy started by Bill James and continued by the minds at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Primer. this blog will be mostly about the Cardinals, though I'm sure other topics of sports and whatnot will surface. I am going to start regular postings with a look at the Cards as Opening Day 2003 approaches. So grab a brew-dog and enjoy!